ABSTRACT
PurposeDecision-making problems in emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control (EPAC) are generally characterized by risky and uncertainty due to multiple possible emergency states and vagueness of decision information. In the process of emergency plan selection for EPAC, it is necessary to consider several obvious features, i.e. different states of epidemics, dynamic evolvement process of epidemics and decision-makers' (DMs') psychological factors such as risk preference and loss aversion.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a novel decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed to solve emergency plan selection of an epidemic problem, which is generally regarded as hybrid-information multi-attribute decision-making (HI-MADM) problems in major epidemics. Initially, considering the psychological factors of DMs, the expectations of DMs are chosen as reference points to normalize the expectation vectors and decision information with three different formats. Subsequently, the matrix of gains and losses is established according to the reference points. Furthermore, the prospect value of each alternative is obtained and the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives under different states are calculated. Accordingly, the ranking of alternatives can be obtained.FindingsThe validity and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by a case calculation of emergency plan selection. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with fuzzy similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.Originality/valueAn emergency plan selection method is proposed for EPAC based on CPT, taking into account the psychological factors of DMs.HighlightsThis paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.
ABSTRACT
The timely and accurate assessment of flooding disasters and economic resilience is significant for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. In July 2021, the National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) daily data were explored as a proxy to assess the flooding damage caused by heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou City, China. A combination of the night-time light (NTL) changes and the radiation normalization method was used to rapidly identify affected areas and extract populations following the flooding disaster. A daily gross domestic product (GDP) prediction model was developed to evaluate the economic resilience of Zhengzhou City using multi-temporal DNB daily and monthly NTL data. The severity of the disaster was estimated by the extent of power outages, flooding crisis regions, and affected populations. It has been predicted that the Zhengzhou economy is unlikely to be restored to its normal level before the end of 2021 owing to the dual impact of the coronavirus outbreak and flooding disaster;the revised recovery-time prediction is late April 2022. We concluded that our NTL data provided new, simple, and effective insights into the post-flooding assessment of the affected areas, populations, GDP forecast, and economic recovery.
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This paper aims to update the exposure to flood risk in a catchment area of the Community of Madrid (Spain) linked to primary sector activities, albeit affected by the urban expansion of the capital. This research starts with the updating of the flood inventory, encompassing episodes documented between 1629 and 2020. The inadequate occupation of the territory means that floods continue to cause significant damage nowadays. It is worth highlighting the two recent floods (2019) that occurred just 15 days apart and caused serious damage to several towns in the basin. The areas at risk of flooding are obtained from the National Floodplain Mapping System, and the maximum and minimum floodable volume in the sector of the Tajuña River basin with the highest exposure to flooding has been calculated. The Sentinel 2 image in false colour (RGB bands 11-2-3, 11-8-3 and 12-11-8) and its transformation to colour properties (Intensity, Hue and Saturation) has made it possible to determine the extension of the riparian vegetation and the irrigated crops located in the alluvial plain. The SPOT 6 image with higher spatial resolution has allowed us to update the mapping of buildings located in areas at risk of flooding. Finally, based on cadastral data, a detailed cartography of built-up areas in areas at risk of flooding is provided. They affect buildings built mainly between the 1960s and 1990s, although the most recent buildings are built on agricultural land in the alluvial plain, even though current regulations prevent the occupation of these lands.
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[...]within financial risk, there are many forms such as investment risk, market risk, inflation risk, credit risk, business risk, liquidity risk and others (Sraders, 2019). In occupational safety, health and environmental standards, risk has generally been defined as the probability or likelihood of an occurrence, and its resulting severity of consequences. A third variation on the definition of risk is found among management systems standards including ISO 45001, Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems (OHSMS);ISO 14001, Environmental Management Systems;and ISO 9000, Quality Management Systems. An organization considering locating a new facility in such areas would likely assess the degree of risk for wind and flood damage based on a location's weather patterns, flooding and wind damage history, elevation, proximity to coastal waters, and other risk factors. The accepted proposal will involve a high-level committee of global experts with the goal of developing a consensus on meta-definitions (universal or base definitions) for risk and associated terms that would standardize their use in standards and reduce confusion to end users.
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A crucial step in measuring the resilience of railway infrastructure is to quantify the extent of its vulnerability to natural hazards. In this paper, we analyze the vulnerability of the German railway network to four types of natural hazards that regularly cause disruptions in German rail operations: floods, mass movements, slope fires, and tree falls. Using daily train traffic data matched with various data on disruptive events, we quantify the extent to which these four types of natural hazard reduce daily train traffic volumes. With a negative binomial count data regression, we find evidence that the track segments of the German railway network are most vulnerable to floods, followed by mass movements and tree-fall events. On average, floods reduce traffic on track segments by 19% of the average daily train traffic, mass movements by 16%, and tree fall by 4%. Moreover, when more than one type of natural hazard affects the track segment on the same day, train traffic on that segment falls by 34% of the average train traffic. Slope fires have an ambiguous and nonrobust effect on train traffic due to the reverse causality due to its triggering factors. This is the first study that attempts to rank different natural hazards according to their impact on railway traffic. The results have implications for the selection of resilience strategy and can help prioritize policy measures.
ABSTRACT
Floods are causing massive losses of crops and agricultural infrastructures in many regions across the globe. During the 2018/2019 agricultural year, heavy rains from Cyclone Idai caused flooding in Central Mozambique and had the greatest impact on Sofala Province. The main objectives of this study are to map the flooding durations, evaluate how long crops survived the floods, and analyse the dynamics of the affected crops and their recovery following various flooding durations using multi-source satellite data. Our results indicate that Otsu method-based flooding mapping provides reliable flood extents and durations with an overall accuracy higher than 90%, which facilitates the assessment of how long crops can survive floods and their recovery progress. Croplands in both Buzi and Tica administrative units were the most severely impacted among all the regions in Sofala Province, with the largest flooded cropland extent at 23,101.1 ha in Buzi on 20 March 2019 and the most prolonged flooding duration of more than 42 days in Tica and Mafambisse. Major summer crops, including maize and rice, could survive when the fields were inundated for up to 12 days, while all crops died when the flooding duration was longer than 24 days. The recovery of surviving crops to pre-flooding status took a much longer time, from approximately 20 days to as long as one month after flooding. The findings presented herein can assist decision making in developing countries or remote regions for flood monitoring, mitigation and damage assessment. [Display omitted] • Image-dependent threshold method precisely extracts flood extent and duration. • Multi-satellite analysis is feasible to quantify the dynamic flood impacts on crops. • Crops could survive even inundate for 12 days, but recovery was slow. • All crops die with flooding durations longer than 24 days. • The Buzi and Tica regions were severely damaged by the 2019 floods in Mozambique. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Remote Sensing of Environment is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)